Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 1.259793 1.327549 1.397840 1.476376 1.561874 1.652357 1.755648
2025-12-14 1.133963 1.226785 1.327093 1.444153 1.577797 1.726562 1.906020
2025-12-21 1.063102 1.170838 1.290573 1.434663 1.604928 1.801738 2.049473
2025-12-28 1.022065 1.142313 1.279103 1.448058 1.653743 1.899567 2.221215
2026-01-04 0.975587 1.103010 1.250659 1.436875 1.669163 1.954615 2.340672
2026-01-11 0.949025 1.084744 1.244789 1.450752 1.713879 2.046339 2.511403
2026-01-18 0.920069 1.061450 1.230695 1.452339 1.741508 2.116066 2.656424
2026-01-25 0.905696 1.054771 1.235986 1.477640 1.799934 2.228608 2.868151
2026-02-01 0.869290 1.018869 1.202609 1.450699 1.786693 2.242036 2.937992
2026-02-08 0.830755 0.978713 1.161999 1.411989 1.754831 2.226713 2.962729
2026-02-15 0.806405 0.955574 1.142138 1.399565 1.757769 2.259802 3.061914
2026-02-22 0.789228 0.940876 1.132441 1.399995 1.778052 2.318282 3.204309
2026-03-01 0.764290 0.916045 1.109458 1.382558 1.773869 2.343081 3.299725
2026-03-08 0.736108 0.886162 1.078816 1.353316 1.751245 2.338856 3.347320
2026-03-15 0.717661 0.868403 1.063608 1.344724 1.757916 2.379171 3.472890
2026-03-22 0.708095 0.861988 1.063287 1.356851 1.795523 2.469614 3.694139
2026-03-29 0.691160 0.845122 1.048022 1.346727 1.798679 2.504846 3.819319
2026-04-05 0.683146 0.839956 1.048547 1.359290 1.836946 2.599400 4.064589
2026-04-12 0.671813 0.829881 1.041810 1.360727 1.857651 2.665751 4.263153
2026-04-19 0.668156 0.830129 1.049427 1.383615 1.913328 2.795455 4.604609
2026-04-26 0.649517 0.809167 1.026324 1.359243 1.891299 2.787604 4.659586
2026-05-03 0.628306 0.784169 0.996832 1.324181 1.850249 2.743438 4.632345
2026-05-10 0.615426 0.770495 0.983207 1.312917 1.847904 2.768736 4.759436